Statistical Analysis Report

Loblolly Trading LLC
Seasonality Based System

Report Start Date: Dec-2023 | End Date: Nov-2025

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Set Risk Thresholds

Set Risk-Free ROR for the Sharpe Ratio: Set Minimum Acceptable ROR for the Sortino: Omega Threshold:

Current Return: +6.47%

YTD Return: +7.16%

Annualized Return: +7.88%

AUM: $ 149,770

Trading Strategy

Quantitative / Seasonality / Diversified

Program Description

Loblolly Trading was founded by Mike Walsh and Patrick Matthews with the goal of providing clients access to a systematic, sea-
sonality-driven trading program.
At its core, the program analyzes long-term seasonal patterns across global futures markets and then applies multiple quantitative
filters to validate or reject each opportunity. This combination of historical seasonality, rule-based confirmation signals, and strict
risk controls forms the backbone of the strategy. The program trades a diversified set of markets, including grains, meats, softs,
metals, energies, interest rates, and currencies. Position sizing and market participation are determined by a proprietary risk mod-
el that ensures exposures remain within predefined constraints. The system is free to allocate capital dynamically across markets,
but it will forgo otherwise attractive trades if the initial risk exceeds acceptable levels. This disciplined approach is designed to
preserve capital, reduce volatility, and capture repeatable seasonal tendencies across asset classes.

Program Statistics
Peak-to-Valley Drawdown (2)	-16.00%
From Feb 2025 to Oct 2025
Worst Month (May 2024)	-10.67%
Current Losing Streak	-10.57%
Average Monthly Return	0.8%
Monthly Std. Deviation	6.03%
Gain Deviation (10 months)	5.23%
Loss Deviation (14 months)	2.69%
Gain to Loss Ratio	2.03
Omega Ratio (5% Threshold)	1.2

Annualized Performance
Compound ROR (1)	7.88%
Standard Deviation	20.9%
Downside Deviation	10.59%
Sharpe Ratio (3) 2% RF ROR	0.44
Sortino Ratio (4) 5% MAR	0.71
Calmar Ratio (5)
Sterling Ratio (6)	0
Gain Deviation	18.1%
Loss Deviation	9.31%
Profit Loss Ratio	1.45

Investment Information
Program Start Date	Dec-2023
Currency Denomination - US Dollars
Minimum Investment	$100,000
Management Fee	2.00%
Incentive Fee	0.00%
Round Turns per Million	1,000
NFA No:	#0571463

Performance Since December 2023 | Track Record Compiled By: Turnkey Trading Partners

	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	ROR	Max DD
2025	13.14%	5.91%	-2.83%	-1.76%	-0.99%	-5.89%	0.68%	-1.88%	0.38%	-4.75%	6.47%	–	7.16%	-16.00%
2024	-1.62%	3.40%	-0.68%	3.78%	-10.67%	16.51%	-1.50%	-2.01%	-3.09%	8.34%	3.27%	-4.17%	9.44%	-10.67%
2023	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	-0.77%	-0.77%	-0.77%

Monthly Return and $1,000 VAMI

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. AN INVESTOR COULD POTENTIALLY LOSE MORE THAN THE INITIAL INVESTMENT. AN INVESTOR MUST READ AND UNDERSTAND THE COMMODITY TRADING ADVISOR'S CURRENT DISCLOSURE DOCUMENT BEFORE INVESTING. SELLING OPTIONS INVOLVES UNLIMITED RISK OF LOSS. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE OF PROFIT NO MATTER WHO IS MANAGING YOUR MONEY. THIS MATTER IS INTENDED AS A SOLICITATION TO INVEST IN MANAGED FUTURES.

Ascent Capital Management
311 S. Wacker Drive - Suite 600 * Chicago, IL 60606
Office: 312-283-3350 Email: info@ascentcm.com | Web Address: http://www.ascentcm.com
© 1997 - 2026 AutumnGold.com LLC

Loblolly Trading LLC
Seasonality Based System

Report Start Date: Dec-2023 | End Date: Nov-2025

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Time Window Analysis

Length	Best	Average	Worst
1 mo	16.5%	0.8%	-10.7%
3 mo	16.4%	2.2%	-8.5%
6 mo	24.8%	4.9%	-12.1%
12 mo	32.3%	15.1%	-0.4%
18 mo	25.2%	16.7%	5.1%
24 mo	16.4%	16.4%	16.4%

Drawdowns and Recoveries

Start	End	Drawdown	Recovery
Mar-25	n/a	-16.00%	1 mo
May-24	Jun-24	-10.67%	1 mo
Jul-24	Oct-24	-6.46%	1 mo
Dec-24	Jan-25	-4.17%	1 mo
Dec-23	Feb-24	-2.38%	1 mo
Mar-24	Apr-24	-0.68%	1 mo

Drawdown Periods Since Dec 2023

Distribution of Monthly Returns

Select a benchmark to add:

Statistical Comparisons		AutumnGold AG CTA Index	S&P 500 SP 500 TR

Annualized Compound ROR (1)	7.88%	4.46%	24.09%
Cumulative Return	16.38%	9.12%	53.99%
Cumulative VAMI(7)	1,164	1,091	1,540
Best Monthly Return	16.51%	2.17%	6.29%
Worst Monthly Return	-10.67%	-1.17%	-5.63%
Annual Standard Deviation	20.90%	3.20%	10.74%
Profit Loss Ratio	1.45	3.03	3.98
Correlation	—	-0.18	-0.06
Last Month	6.47%	-0.01%	0.25%
Last 12 Months	2.69%	2.95%	15.01%
Last 36 Months	16.38%	11.50%	75.29%

Growth of $1,000 VAMI Comparison

Loblolly Trading LLC
Seasonality Based System

Report Start Date: Dec-2023 | End Date: Nov-2025

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Other Fees

None

An Important Note on the Start Date and End Date of this Report

If the Start Date of this Report Predates the Inception of the Program, the Maximum Drawdown from Inception may be larger than indicated in this report. Performance Results reported or amended subsequent to Saturday April 4, 2026 are not reflected in this Report. Monthly ROR and drawdowns are based on end-of-month values and do not reflect intramonth volatility.

Historical Drawdowns and Recoveries

The drawdown begins in the month listed as "start." Length is in months. Recovery begins the following month and ends when full recovery is reached.

Statistical Footnotes

1. The Annualized Compounded Rate of Return (ACROR) represents the compounded rate of return for each year or portion thereof presented. It is computed by applying successively respective monthly rate of return for each month beginning with the first month of that period. It smooths out the returns by assuming a constant growth.
2. Peak to Valley Drawdown = worst % loss between Dec-2023 and Nov-2025
3. Sharpe Ratio is calculated using a Risk-Free ROR
4. Sortino Ratio is calculated using a Minimum Acceptable ROR
5. Calmar Ratio uses the last 36 months of data
6. Sterling Ratio uses the last 36 months of data
7. VAMI = Hypothetical growth of $1,000
8. Drawdown/recovery: start = first loss, recovery = full return to prior peak

Benchmark Descriptions

AG CTA Index: The Autumn Gold CTA Index is a Non-Investable Index comprised of the client performance of all CTA programs included in the AG database and does not represent the complete universe of CTAs. CTA programs with proprietary performance are not included. Monthly numbers are updated until 45 days after the end of the month. Investors should note that it is not possible to invest in this index.

SP 500 TR: The S&P 500 indices are designed to reflect all sectors of the U.S. equity markets. The S&P 500 includes 500 blue chip, large cap stocks, which together represent about 75% of the total U.S. equities market. Companies eligible for addition to the S&P 500 have market capitalization of at least US$3.5 billion. The TR Index accounts for the reinvestment of dividends.

This report was prepared from trader-provided information and is believed to be reliable. It should be read alongside each Trader’s Disclosure Document or Fund Offering Document.

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