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  • Bullet Hill Capital LLC

Recent Statistics
  • Jan Return: 0.28%
  • YTD Return: 0.28%
  • Annual CROR:1 -0.75 %
  • Worst DD:2 -20.35%
  • Losing Streak:3 -3.59 %
  • Sharpe Ratio:4 -0.09
  • Min Investment: $500,000
  • AUM:5 $3,102,601
  • Calmar Ratio:6 N/A
The database collects daily sentiment numbers (market consensus) to analyze market behavior in a “bottom up” fashion in order to determine the state of market opinion and predict the likely hood of market movements based on contrary opinion and historical price action based on archived behavioral patterns. By looking at sentiment in a historical and behavioral manner of market movement (dating back to 1964), various mathematical concepts such as Random Walk and Bernoulli are used to qualify and measure the path and statistical characteristics of behavioral patterns. The measurements are calculated and stored within archives that are recalled and provide performance statistics to measure the market's tendency to be either overbought or oversold. This systematic approach is technically based on a proprietary model that evaluates price over time combined with market consensus to create a system signal; both must be met before taking a position. We look at the patterns of consensus numbers over a certain time frame, not just the latest number. Consensus is the instrument that provides the main filter to determine the strength of price breakouts and whether the system should initiate a position against these breakouts. When a market does break out of a trading range, this system will attempt to participate by entering on a re-test of the breakout. A comprehensive database of string patterns and analysis of trade action has been created and is used to gauge statistical probabilities of future direction.


Our edge lies in that we have a large enough historical sample to gauge how markets behave (based on a particular behavior pattern) over a history of varying market and economic conditions. This vast historical dataset allows us to identify what side of the market is wrong and will need to correct and place our bet based on statistical outcomes that have occurred over a 50 plus year timeframe, in varying market conditions. We illustrate this by applying the Random Walk principle and superimpose actual behavior with what the Random Walk would look like in order to see what happens over multiple years and where we think the "street" is likely to be making the same mistakes as in the past. Measurements are calculated and stored by archives that we can recall based on specific aggregations of behavior. The system exploits these distortions by taking directional positions in the major liquid commodity, currency and bond markets.

By statistically spreading this approach across multiple markets, the system's performance is designed to follow the overall statistical performance of the historical behavior using artificial intelligence. This Machine Learning system perpetually acquires and archives data on a daily basis. So in this sense the system is perpetually growing and getting smarter as it acquires more history that lends to the statistical forecasts it produces.

Our edge lies in that we have a large enough historical sample to gauge how markets behave (based on a particular behavior pattern) over a history of varying market and economic conditions. This vast historical data set allows us to identify what side of the market is wrong and will need to correct and place our bet based on statistical outcomes that have occurred over a 50 plus year time frame, in varying market conditions. We illustrate this by applying the Random Walk principle and superimpose actual behavior with what the Random Walk would look like in order to see what happens over multiple years and where we think the "street" is likely to be making the same mistakes as in the past. Measurements are calculated and stored by archives that we can recall based on specific aggregations of behavior. The system exploits these distortions by taking directional positions in the major liquid commodity, currency and bond markets.


  • Trading Methodology
    97% Systematic
    3% Discretionary
  • Style Sub-Categories
    Pattern Recognition
    Quantitative
  • Trading Style
    100% Sentiment
  • Market Allocation
    Diversified
  • Holding Period
    10% Medium Term
    90% Short Term
  • Sector
    US
    Contracts
    Futures

Performance Since June 2014

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecROR Max DD
2017 0.28%   0.28% 0%
2016 0.10% -0.36% 1.12% 0.23% -2.27% 1.31% 1.12% 1.48% 0.69% 0.66% 1.09% 0.42% 5.67% -2.27%
2015 0.48% 1.31% -0.17% -4.54% 6.56% 2.32% 0.68% 0.87% 2.22% 0.80% -0.19% 0.30% 10.81% -4.7%
2014  1.29% -1.25% 1.64% -15.71% 0.89% -4.07% 0.66% -16.53% -18.43%

Years2014201520162017 YTD
ROR-16.53%10.81%5.67%0.28%
Max DD-18.43%-4.70%-2.27%0.00%


PAST PERFORMANCE DOES NOT GUARANTEE FUTURE SUCCESS. THERE IS A RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES TRADING.

Program Information
  • Start Date: Jun-2014
  • New Money: Yes
  • Min Investment: $500,000
  • Fund Minimum: $0
  • Notional Funds: Yes
  • NFA Member: Yes
  • NFA Number: 0476440
  • Currency: US Dollar
  • AUM:5 $3,102,601
  • Annual CROR:1 : -0.75%
  • Worst Drawdown:2 -20.35 %
  • Losing Streak:3 -3.59 %
  • Sharpe Ratio:4 -0.09
  • Calmar Ratio:6 N/A
  • Margin:7: 0.3
  • Mgt Fee: 2.00%
  • Incentive Fee: 20.00%
  • Other Fees: None
  • Avg Comm:8 $10.00
  • Max Comm:9:
  • Round Turns:10 2,500
Additional Information
  • Other Memberships: None Listed
  • Correlations: AG CTA Index: -0.300 | AG Systematic CTA Index: -0.294 |
  • Track Record Prepared By: Compliance Supervisors Inc

  • Chart
    Chart
  • * By selecting to be contacted by a Representatives Autumn Gold may refer you to a third party broker or directly to the Manager.

    (P) - Proprietary Trading Results (C) - Client Trading Results

    1. Rate of Returns are calculated from the start date of each program. Usually returns are calculated based on the Annual Compounded Rate of Return method. In some cases returns have been calculated on an Non-Compounded basis. This would occur when a Manager trades based on account unit rather than on account equity.

         The Annual Compound Rate of Return ("Annual CROR") represents the compounded rate of return or each year or portion thereof presented. It is computed by applying successively respective monthly rate of return for each month beginning with the first month of that period.

         Annual Rate of Return ("Annual ROR") is calculated adding each month's return.

    2. The Worst Peak-to-Valley Drawdown ("Worst Drawdown") is defined as the greatest cumulative percentage decline in net asset value due to losses sustained by the trading program during any period in which the initial net asset value is not equaled or exceeded by a subsequent asset value.

    3. The Current Losing Streak ("Losing Streak") represents the extent of the Adviso'rs current drawdown.

    4. Sharpe Ratio is a risk adjusted ratio that rewards consistancy of returns. Traders are penalized for volatility regardless of whether it is onthe up or downside. The Sharpe Ratios is calculated using a 1% risk-free rate of return.

    5. Assets Under Management ("AUM") represents the current nominal assets traded by the Manager.

    6. Calmar Ratio represents the historical amount gained for each dollar risked. A higher number is better. Unless otherwise denoted the Calmar Ratio is calculated by dividing the 36 month Compounded ROR by the 36 month Peak to Valley Drawdown. Traders with less than 36 months of data or a negative Calmar Ratio will be indicated by N/A.

    7. Margin to Equity ("Margin") represents the average margin as a percent of a fully funded account.

    8. The Average Commission ("Avg Comm") represents the average commission rate of the composite track record. A higher or lower commission rate would increase or decrease the performance accordingly.

    9. Maximum Commission ("Max Comm") is the Maximum Round Turn Rate allowable by the Manager.

    10. Round Turns per Million ("Round Turns") represent the average number of round turns that would be generated in a $1,000,000 account.

  • ++Qualified Eligible Investors Only. A Qualified Eligible Person must meet the following two requirements: 1) the investor must first be an accredited investor. The most common ways for this are to either have a net worth of $1,000,000 or more OR an annual income of $200,000 or more for the last two years OR, combined with a spouse, $300,000 per year for two years, 2) the investor must meet an additional portfolio requirement, which is having $2,000,000 in securities holdings OR $200,000 in margin on deposit with a Futures Commission Merchant OR a combination of the two (for example, $1,000,000 in securities and $100,000 in margin).

    Exemptions: PURSUANT TO AN EXEMPTION FROM THE COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION IN CONNECTION WITH THE ACCOUNTS OF QUALIFIED ELIBIBLE PERSONS, THIS BROCHURE OR ACCOUNT DOCUMENT IS NOT REQUIRED TO BE, AND HAS NOT BEEN, FILED WITH THE COMMISSION. THE COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION DOES NOT PASS UPON THE MERITS OF PARTICIPATING IN A TRADING PROGRAM OR UPON THE ADEQUANCY OR ACCURACY OF THE COMMODITY TRADING ADVISOR DISCLOSURE. CONSEQUENTLY, THE COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION HAS NOT REVIEWED OR APPROVED THIS TRADING PROGRAM OR THIS BROCHURE OR ACCOUNT DOCUMENT.

    RISK DISCLOSURE

    PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

    THIS MATTER IS INTENDED AS A SOLICITATION FOR MANAGED FUTURES. THE RISK OF TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES, OPTIONS AND/OR FOREIGN EXCHANGE ('FOREX') IS SUBSTANTIAL. THE HIGH DEGREE OF LEVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH COMMODITY FUTURES, OPTIONS AND FOREX CAN WORK AGAINST YOU AS WELL AS FOR YOU. THIS HIGH DEGREE OF LEVERAGE CAN RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL LOSSES, AS WELL AS GAINS. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. IF YOU ARE UNSURE YOU SHOULD SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. AN INVESTOR MUST READ AND UNDERSTAND THE CTA’S CURRENT DISCLOSURE DOCUMENT BEFORE INVESTING. THERE ARE NO GUARANTEES OF PROFIT NO MATTER WHO IS MANAGING YOUR MONEY.

    PAST PERFORMANCE DOES NOT GUARANTEE FUTURE SUCCESS. IN SOME CASES MANAGED ACCOUNTS ARE CHARGED SUBSTANTIAL COMMISSIONS AND ADVISORY FEES. THOSE ACCOUNTS SUBJECT TO THESE CHARGES, MAY NEED TO MAKE SUBSTANTIAL TRADING PROFITS JUST TO AVOID DEPLETION OF THEIR ASSETS. EACH COMMODITY TRADING ADVISOR ("CTA") IS REQUIRED BY THE COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION ("CFTC") TO ISSUE TO PROSPECTIVE CLIENTS A RISK DISCLOSURE DOCUMENT OUTLINING THESE FEES, CONFLICTS OF INTEREST AND OTHER ASSOCIATED RISKS. A HARD COPY OF THESE RISK DISCLOSURE DOCUMENTS ARE READILY AVAILABLE BY CLICKING ON EACH CTA'S "REQUEST DISCLOSURE DOCUMENT" BUTTON.

    THE FULL RISK OF COMMODITY FUTURES, OPTIONS AND FOREX TRADING CAN NOT BE ADDRESSED IN THIS RISK DISCLOSURE STATEMENT. NO CONSIDERATION TO INVEST SHOULD BE MADE WITHOUT THOROUGHLY READING THE DISCLOSURE DOCUMENT OF EACH OF THE CTAS IN WHICH YOU MAY HAVE AN INTEREST. REQUESTING A DISCLOSURE DOCUMENT PLACES YOU UNDER NO OBLIGATION AND EACH DOCUMENT IS PROVIDED AT NO COST. THE CFTC HAS NOT PASSED UPON THE MERITS OF PARTICIPATING IN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING PROGRAMS NOR ON THE ADEQUACY OR ACCURACY OF THE DISCLOSURE DOCUMENTS. OTHER DISCLOSURE STATEMENTS ARE REQUIRED TO BE PROVIDED TO YOU BEFORE AN ACCOUNT MAY BE OPENED FOR YOU.

    PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. PROSPECTIVE CLIENTS SHOULD NOT BASE THEIR DECISION ON INVESTING IN THIS TRADING PROGRAM SOLELY ON THE PAST PERFORMANCE PRESENTED. ADDITIONALLY, IN MAKING AN INVESTMENT DECISION, PROSPECTIVE CLIENTS MUST ALSO RELY ON THEIR OWN EXAMINATION OF THE PERSON OR ENTITY MAKING THE TRADING DECISIONS AND THE TERMS OF THE ADVISORY AGREEMENT INCLUDING THE MERITS AND RISKS INVOLVED.

    AUTUMN GOLD CTA INDEXES ARE NON-INVESTABLE INDEXES COMPRISED OF THE CLIENT PERFORMANCE OF CTA PROGRAMS INCLUDED IN THE AUTUMN GOLD DATABASE AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE COMPLETE UNIVERSE OF CTAS. INVESTORS SHOULD NOTE THAT IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO INVEST IN THESE INDEXES.