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  • Manager: Red Oak Advisors, Inc.
    Program: Fundamental Program


    Principal(s): Gary A. Gerstein & Phyllis A. Weaver
    Strategy: Fundamental / Diversified
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    Investment Restrictions: 4.7 Exempt - Qualified Eligible Persons Only++
Recent Statistics
  • Mar Return: -2.60%
  • YTD Return: 2.33%
  • Annual CROR:1 13.48 %
  • Worst DD:2 -37.32%
  • Losing Streak:3 -13.37 %
  • Sharpe Ratio:4 0.59
  • Min Investment: $5,000,000
  • AUM:5 $25,900,000
  • Calmar Ratio:6 0.17
The Red Oak trading strategy is driven by co-founder Gary Gerstein's knowledge and experience in financial, currency, and commodity markets and the many factors affecting them. Decisions are the result of fundamental analysis, and unlike many other trading strategies, Red Oak's is neither technically based or trend following. The firm presumes that current market prices may not reflect the underlying or real value of a given commodity. However, such value will eventually determine price. Fundamental forces driving major price changes can be isolated and anticipated by looking beyond the short-term "noise" of leveraged volatile markets. Red Oak's research tracks intermediate and longer-term commodity and economic trends to identify and take advantage of these major changes. The firm employs risk control procedures in an effort to preserve capital and protect against material forecasting errors.


The Red Oak approach is neither technically based nor trend following. By contrast managers using technical analysis study the markets per se to predict future price trends. Fundamental analysis is based generally on the study of factors external to markets in order to predict future prices. Such factors might include among others, supply and demand for a given commodity, the economy of a particular country, government policy, domestic and foreign political and economic events, and changing trade prospects. Fundamental analysis accepts the premise that market prices often may not always reflect the underlying or true value of a commodity, although such value will eventually determine price level. Technical analysis is based on the theory that studying markets and their patterns provides the means to predict future price trends. Technical analysis of markets may include among other things a study of actual daily, weekly, and monthly price fluctuations, volume variations, and changes in open interest.

Trading commodities and futures is more an intellectual art than a systematic science. Red Oak may use statistical analysis to monitor markets, but reliance on technical trading models runs contrary to our approach. Our trading is highly disciplined and success depends on the discretionary investment judgment of Gary Gerstein. The raw materials that produce our successful returns are skill, knowledge, timing, and instinct.

The firm employs risk control procedures in an effort to preserve capital and protect against material forecasting errors. To control risk, a predetermined dollar level of acceptable loss per position is calculated based on volatility and risk-reward dynamics. If this predetermined acceptable loss is exceeded, the position is closed.The firm is grounded in the belief that commodities and futures trading is an art and not an exact science. Therefore, while Red Oak may use computers for analysis or may engage in mathematical measurements or calculations designed to monitor market activity, reliance on entirely systematic or mechanical technical trading models would be inconsistent with the firm's basic trading approach. Although Red Oak values the necessity of discipline in trading, it believes that success depends ultimately on the use of discretionary investment judgment by its principals. The raw materials that produce successful returns over time are skill, knowledge, timing, and instinct.

Gary A. Gerstein is the co-founder, Managing Director, Chief Investment Officer, President, and Secretary of Red Oak Commodity Advisors. In these roles he is responsible for all investment aspects of the firm. Gary developed the firm's fundamental investment approach and discretionary trading methodology, and is responsible for the research and implementation of the strategy. He directs and supervises Red Oak's trader and oversees all aspects of trading, accounting, and performance reporting. He is a principal, associated person, and member of the NFA.

Prior to entering the managed futures industry, Gary was a managing director in Red Oak Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisory firm. Red Oak Advisors and Red Oak Commodity Advisors merged, and the combined company took the name Red Oak Commodity Advisors, Inc. Red Oak no longer provides such securities investment advisory services.

Gary and co-founder, Phyllis Weaver, are partners in business and in life. They formed Red Oak three years after their marriage. Both partnerships are highly successful. For the clients it means that there are no gaps in communication and the clock doesn't stop when the office doors close.

The strategy in managing commodities and futures is grounded in Gary's highly distinguished career as an equity money manager. His strategy is driven by economic and financial fundamentals, and his experience in and knowledge of the different commodity and commodity-related markets and the various fundamental factors that affect each market. Gary is a contrarian, more likely to be attracted to the buy side of declining markets and to the sell side of those rising. An economist by training, he knows history and cycles and he sees changes coming that others either miss or do not have the confidence to act on. He seeks investment opportunities that have not yet been reflected in markets, but have a high probability of doing so. He is looking not for short-term blips but long term major moves in the diversified markets he trades.

After serving in the United States Army and working for the Federal Deposit Insurance Agency, Gary began his investment career in the Trust Department at the then Chase Manhattan Bank. He was an analyst, a portfolio manager, and eventually the Director of Research. With Chase Investment Management Corp. he held the position of Investment Officer, Vice President, and he was Senior Vice President at the time of his departure. Gary was employed as a Portfolio Manager and Vice President for Neuberger & Berman, a registered broker-dealer, and he was Co-Chief Investment Officer and Co-Managing Partner of Century Capital Associates, an investment advisory firm. Gary received an MA in Economics from Rutgers University and a BS in Economics from New York University. He also has obtained the Chartered Financial Analyst designation.

Gary and Phyllis Weaver founded the Urban Education Internships to introduce highly intelligent and motivated college students to The Young Women's Leadership Network's schools and programs. Gary and Phyllis funded six Metcalf Summer Fellowships for University of Chicago undergraduate students to work in nonprofit organizations. They recently endowed the Red Oak Odyssey Scholarships at the University of Chicago to provide support for worthy and deserving undergraduate students.

Phyllis Weaver is co-founder, Treasurer, and Compliance Officer of Red Oak Commodity Advisors. In these roles, she oversees marketing and client services, financial accounting, and all aspects of administration. As Compliance Officer she works directly with ACA Compliance Group keeping Red Oak up to date and fully compliant with all relevant CFTC and NFA regulatory requirements. She is a principal, associated person, and member of the NFA.

Ms. Weaver earned an MBA from Stanford University, Graduate School of Business, and began her investment career on the New York Institutional Sales desk of Goldman Sachs & Co. as a Research Liaison. She moved to the High Net Worth Individual Sales group, and was Vice President at the time of her departure.

Phyllis's expertise, demonstrated both at Red Oak and at Goldman Sachs, is attracting financial assets. She built her book of business at Goldman largely by cold-calling prospective clients, and when she and Gary Gerstein founded Red Oak, she used those same skills to put Red Oak on the CTA map. Phyllis credits her earlier academic training and career in teaching and research for her success in marketing and client services.

With an MEd in Higher Education and a PhD in Language Communications, both from the University of Pittsburgh, she joined the faculty of the Harvard University Graduate School of Education where she was first an Assistant then an Associate Professor. She taught and advised masters and doctoral students; wrote and edited books and articles, secured research grants from the Office of Naval Research and The Spencer Foundation, among others; and was an author of one of the most widely used K-8 reading series in the nation. She was granted a BS in Education from Ohio State University.

Phyllis is a very active philanthropist in urban education. She serves on the Board of Directors of the Young Women's Leadership Network in New York City, chairing the Girls' Education Committee. In 2011 she and Gary Gerstein founded the Urban Education Internship Program to introduce highly intelligent and motivated undergraduate and graduate students to The Young Women's Leadership Network's schools and programs. Phyllis directs the program and serves as mentor to four interns per year.

Previously, she was very active in development for the University of Chicago. During their son, Charlie Gerstein's, undergraduate years, she was founding Chair of the Parent and Family Leadership Council, the major gifts arm of the Parents Program. She remained Chair for an unprecedented three years. Over those same years, Phyllis and Gary funded six Metcalf Summer Fellowships for University of Chicago undergraduate students to work in nonprofit organizations. In addition, they endowed the Red Oak Odyssey Scholarships to provide support for worthy and deserving undergraduate students.


  • Trading Methodology
    100% Discretionary
  • Style Sub-Categories
    Fundamental
  • Trading Style
    100% Fundamental
  • Market Allocation
    Diversified
  • Holding Period
    50% Long Term
    45% Medium Term
    5% Short Term
  • Sector
    US
    Contracts
    Futures

Performance Since January 1990

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecROR Max DD
2017 2.70% 2.30% -2.60%   2.33% -2.6%
2016 0.82% 0.82% -8.35% 12.70% -2.13% -2.90% -9.87% 2.91% 0.64% 7.29% 7.91% -1.15% 6.59% -14.35%
2015 4.66% 1.31% 5.18% -10.69% 0.44% -0.10% -1.15% -4.62% 2.61% -7.31% 0.15% -1.31% -11.42% -20.58%
2014 -6.04% 1.29% -0.80% -1.79% -1.88% -0.07% 3.06% 4.68% 6.80% 2.38% 4.01% 1.38% 13.08% -9.09%
2013 -0.41% 1.35% 3.11% 0.57% -0.08% -0.56% 0.89% -3.04% 0.33% 1.32% 0.29% 2.69% 6.51% -3.04%
2012 3.73% 2.20% 0.18% -1.98% -5.75% -0.52% 0.26% 1.17% 3.72% 0.45% -1.31% -0.08% 1.72% -8.1%

Years199019911992199319941995
ROR51.98%6.84%-2.53%13.26%5.58%28.95%
Max DD-9.75%-10.27%-14.82%-3.99%-8.69%-10.48%

Years199619971998199920002001
ROR-6.89%43.58%-18.73%79.33%7.57%-18.84%
Max DD-24.24%-16.94%-31.86%-21.93%-16.68%-34.79%

Years200220032004200520062007
ROR35.07%75.51%-1.80%21.16%30.67%28.92%
Max DD-26.15%-12.87%-21.58%-24.81%-5.33%-0.01%

Years200820092010201120122013
ROR-1.86%25.45%16.71%-6.55%1.72%6.51%
Max DD-21.91%-2.34%-4.10%-12.88%-8.10%-3.04%

Years2014201520162017 YTD
ROR13.08%-11.42%6.59%2.33%
Max DD-9.09%-20.58%-14.35%-2.60%


PAST PERFORMANCE DOES NOT GUARANTEE FUTURE SUCCESS. THERE IS A RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES TRADING.

Program Information
  • Start Date: Jan-1990
  • New Money: Yes
  • Min Investment: $5,000,000
  • Fund Minimum: $0
  • Notional Funds: Yes
  • NFA Member: Yes
  • NFA Number: 0238202
  • Currency: US Dollar
  • AUM:5 $25,900,000
  • Annual CROR:1 : 13.48%
  • Worst Drawdown:2 -37.32 %
  • Losing Streak:3 -13.37 %
  • Sharpe Ratio:4 0.59
  • Calmar Ratio:6 0.17
  • Margin:7: 0.11
  • Mgt Fee: 2.00%
  • Incentive Fee: 20.00%
  • Other Fees: None
  • Avg Comm:8
  • Max Comm:9:
  • Round Turns:10 500
Additional Information
  • Other Memberships:
  • Correlations: AG CTA Index: 0.234 |
  • Track Record Prepared By: Arthur Bell

  • Chart
    Chart
  • * By selecting to be contacted by a Representatives Autumn Gold may refer you to a third party broker or directly to the Manager.

    (P) - Proprietary Trading Results (C) - Client Trading Results

    1. Rate of Returns are calculated from the start date of each program. Usually returns are calculated based on the Annual Compounded Rate of Return method. In some cases returns have been calculated on an Non-Compounded basis. This would occur when a Manager trades based on account unit rather than on account equity.

         The Annual Compound Rate of Return ("Annual CROR") represents the compounded rate of return or each year or portion thereof presented. It is computed by applying successively respective monthly rate of return for each month beginning with the first month of that period.

         Annual Rate of Return ("Annual ROR") is calculated adding each month's return.

    2. The Worst Peak-to-Valley Drawdown ("Worst Drawdown") is defined as the greatest cumulative percentage decline in net asset value due to losses sustained by the trading program during any period in which the initial net asset value is not equaled or exceeded by a subsequent asset value.

    3. The Current Losing Streak ("Losing Streak") represents the extent of the Adviso'rs current drawdown.

    4. Sharpe Ratio is a risk adjusted ratio that rewards consistancy of returns. Traders are penalized for volatility regardless of whether it is onthe up or downside. The Sharpe Ratios is calculated using a 1% risk-free rate of return.

    5. Assets Under Management ("AUM") represents the current nominal assets traded by the Manager.

    6. Calmar Ratio represents the historical amount gained for each dollar risked. A higher number is better. Unless otherwise denoted the Calmar Ratio is calculated by dividing the 36 month Compounded ROR by the 36 month Peak to Valley Drawdown. Traders with less than 36 months of data or a negative Calmar Ratio will be indicated by N/A.

    7. Margin to Equity ("Margin") represents the average margin as a percent of a fully funded account.

    8. The Average Commission ("Avg Comm") represents the average commission rate of the composite track record. A higher or lower commission rate would increase or decrease the performance accordingly.

    9. Maximum Commission ("Max Comm") is the Maximum Round Turn Rate allowable by the Manager.

    10. Round Turns per Million ("Round Turns") represent the average number of round turns that would be generated in a $1,000,000 account.

  • ++Qualified Eligible Investors Only. A Qualified Eligible Person must meet the following two requirements: 1) the investor must first be an accredited investor. The most common ways for this are to either have a net worth of $1,000,000 or more OR an annual income of $200,000 or more for the last two years OR, combined with a spouse, $300,000 per year for two years, 2) the investor must meet an additional portfolio requirement, which is having $2,000,000 in securities holdings OR $200,000 in margin on deposit with a Futures Commission Merchant OR a combination of the two (for example, $1,000,000 in securities and $100,000 in margin).

    Exemptions: PURSUANT TO AN EXEMPTION FROM THE COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION IN CONNECTION WITH THE ACCOUNTS OF QUALIFIED ELIBIBLE PERSONS, THIS BROCHURE OR ACCOUNT DOCUMENT IS NOT REQUIRED TO BE, AND HAS NOT BEEN, FILED WITH THE COMMISSION. THE COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION DOES NOT PASS UPON THE MERITS OF PARTICIPATING IN A TRADING PROGRAM OR UPON THE ADEQUANCY OR ACCURACY OF THE COMMODITY TRADING ADVISOR DISCLOSURE. CONSEQUENTLY, THE COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION HAS NOT REVIEWED OR APPROVED THIS TRADING PROGRAM OR THIS BROCHURE OR ACCOUNT DOCUMENT.

    RISK DISCLOSURE

    PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

    THIS MATTER IS INTENDED AS A SOLICITATION FOR MANAGED FUTURES. THE RISK OF TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES, OPTIONS AND/OR FOREIGN EXCHANGE ('FOREX') IS SUBSTANTIAL. THE HIGH DEGREE OF LEVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH COMMODITY FUTURES, OPTIONS AND FOREX CAN WORK AGAINST YOU AS WELL AS FOR YOU. THIS HIGH DEGREE OF LEVERAGE CAN RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL LOSSES, AS WELL AS GAINS. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. IF YOU ARE UNSURE YOU SHOULD SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. AN INVESTOR MUST READ AND UNDERSTAND THE CTA’S CURRENT DISCLOSURE DOCUMENT BEFORE INVESTING. THERE ARE NO GUARANTEES OF PROFIT NO MATTER WHO IS MANAGING YOUR MONEY.

    PAST PERFORMANCE DOES NOT GUARANTEE FUTURE SUCCESS. IN SOME CASES MANAGED ACCOUNTS ARE CHARGED SUBSTANTIAL COMMISSIONS AND ADVISORY FEES. THOSE ACCOUNTS SUBJECT TO THESE CHARGES, MAY NEED TO MAKE SUBSTANTIAL TRADING PROFITS JUST TO AVOID DEPLETION OF THEIR ASSETS. EACH COMMODITY TRADING ADVISOR ("CTA") IS REQUIRED BY THE COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION ("CFTC") TO ISSUE TO PROSPECTIVE CLIENTS A RISK DISCLOSURE DOCUMENT OUTLINING THESE FEES, CONFLICTS OF INTEREST AND OTHER ASSOCIATED RISKS. A HARD COPY OF THESE RISK DISCLOSURE DOCUMENTS ARE READILY AVAILABLE BY CLICKING ON EACH CTA'S "REQUEST DISCLOSURE DOCUMENT" BUTTON.

    THE FULL RISK OF COMMODITY FUTURES, OPTIONS AND FOREX TRADING CAN NOT BE ADDRESSED IN THIS RISK DISCLOSURE STATEMENT. NO CONSIDERATION TO INVEST SHOULD BE MADE WITHOUT THOROUGHLY READING THE DISCLOSURE DOCUMENT OF EACH OF THE CTAS IN WHICH YOU MAY HAVE AN INTEREST. REQUESTING A DISCLOSURE DOCUMENT PLACES YOU UNDER NO OBLIGATION AND EACH DOCUMENT IS PROVIDED AT NO COST. THE CFTC HAS NOT PASSED UPON THE MERITS OF PARTICIPATING IN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING PROGRAMS NOR ON THE ADEQUACY OR ACCURACY OF THE DISCLOSURE DOCUMENTS. OTHER DISCLOSURE STATEMENTS ARE REQUIRED TO BE PROVIDED TO YOU BEFORE AN ACCOUNT MAY BE OPENED FOR YOU.

    PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. PROSPECTIVE CLIENTS SHOULD NOT BASE THEIR DECISION ON INVESTING IN THIS TRADING PROGRAM SOLELY ON THE PAST PERFORMANCE PRESENTED. ADDITIONALLY, IN MAKING AN INVESTMENT DECISION, PROSPECTIVE CLIENTS MUST ALSO RELY ON THEIR OWN EXAMINATION OF THE PERSON OR ENTITY MAKING THE TRADING DECISIONS AND THE TERMS OF THE ADVISORY AGREEMENT INCLUDING THE MERITS AND RISKS INVOLVED.

    AUTUMN GOLD CTA INDEXES ARE NON-INVESTABLE INDEXES COMPRISED OF THE CLIENT PERFORMANCE OF CTA PROGRAMS INCLUDED IN THE AUTUMN GOLD DATABASE AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE COMPLETE UNIVERSE OF CTAS. INVESTORS SHOULD NOTE THAT IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO INVEST IN THESE INDEXES.